NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby Retiredterrier on Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:37 pm

Here is a prediction and what appears to be a place to bet but I did not try it myself. Terriers are 21.5 underdogs. https://sportschatplace.com/cfb-picks/2 ... prediction
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby T-Dog 4 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:06 pm

For what it's worth, statistically, this is a strength v. strength type of matchup. If you just look at the numbers, NDSU does a lot of the same things we do, but slightly better statistically. NDSU is 5th in the country in rushing offense at 268/game; we are 7th at 254/game. NDSU is 1st in total defense and 7th in rushing defense allowing 87 yds/game. We are 20th in total defense and 17th in rushing defense allowing 110 yds/game. NDSU is 2nd in scoring defense allowing 11.5 pts/game and we are 11th averaging 20.8 pts/game.

Of course, there are a number of variables that are more difficult to correlate though such as: strength of schedule, opponent's offensive/defensive schemes (run v. pass orientations, etc), injuries, weather, home-field advantages, conservative play-calling, short-field situations from turnovers, playing back-ups vs. running up the score, etc.

However, the 2 things that this version of the T-Dogs has that no stat can account for are: (1) experience (both in the playoffs and especially in tight games) and (2) heart. I see these things as the real x-factors. If T19 has taught us anything, it is to never count these Dogs out of any fight.

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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby lawdog on Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:21 pm

Several on the (courteous, articulate) NDSU fan board have said their last game with Wofford, a 14-7 win, was the most physical they recall, and that they expect another such game this time. I think that is about right; I see a rockemsockem affair. We need to get after their qb and be alert on the pass. Both teams are big, deep, experienced, and well coached. But there is no fear in the heart of the short-haired Dog. Focus. Execute. Do not quit. Play for each other.
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby Retiredterrier on Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:49 pm

TD4 and ld good points. I watched most of NDSU games with YSU and SDSU. Of course YSU just happens to be the team that we lost to last year in the quarters. NDSU lost the game to SDSU but won at YSU. A big reason they lost to SDSU but not at YSU was the opposing team's D especially SDSU's DL. SDSU's DL put a lot of pressure on the NDSU QB. He threw three ints and I remember at least one due to the pressure. The other two I do not remember but they could have been caused by pressure from SDSU. Another factor was the ability of SDSU to outrush NDSU on the ground. YSU still almost won the game and really were at least part of the game the better team. Main point is that both games were for the most part won at the LOS. If the Terriers can do the same as SDSU - win the LOS on both D and O - then we have a good shot at it. But of course that is how most football games are won - by controlling the LOS. Go TERRIERS !!!!! Whoomp there it is !!!!

YSU vs NDSU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjnnRnQtgkM

NDSU vs SDSU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6fjilZzPE0
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby woffordgrad94 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 6:06 pm

So a lot of people on this board are doing so very good detailed analyses of this game and concluding that this will be a very close game and that Wofford has a legitimate chance to win. And I’d like to think that Wofford does indeed have a shot in Fargo. But the media and national prognosticators disagree, all pegging Wofford as a three touchdown underdog, basically saying the Terriers have little to no chance of winning. So what should I believe? What is the REAL truth? Are we as Wofford fans simply being delusionsal about our team? Or are a lot of people vastly underrating and underestimating us? Or, as I suspect, is the truth somewhere in the middle here and you could make a good argument either way?
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby 19TERRIER19 on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:24 pm

[quote] So what should I believe? What is the REAL truth? Are we as Wofford fans simply being delusionsal about our team? Or are a lot of people vastly underrating and underestimating us? Or, as I suspect, is the truth somewhere in the middle here and you could make a good argument either way?
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I think you will get the answers to your questions on SAturday.......
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby Eric Deutsch on Wed Dec 06, 2017 7:32 pm

Retiredterrier wrote:Here is a prediction and what appears to be a place to bet but I did not try it myself. Terriers are 21.5 underdogs. https://sportschatplace.com/cfb-picks/2 ... prediction


If I were a betting man, I would gladly take that line. All day long.
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby Terrier NH Dude on Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:10 pm

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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby youngterrier on Wed Dec 06, 2017 8:13 pm

The reason why they have Wofford that much of an underdog is because Sagarin and Massey have us at about that much. The problem is a case study in why the computers aren't the best at this level. They don't account for many variables, some very hard to measure.

For example, the average MVFC team runs for more yards per game and stops the run better than the average Socon team. Why? Because we have 4 teams in the Socon that run it better than the bottom 5, but not enough to compensate for the bad running teams. Meanwhile, everyone got to defend those running teams so everyone's run defense is kind of inflated. If you were to just look at the stats without context to how each team plays philosophically (not something computer algorithms are adept at as they just put in variables from each game), you would assume 1) MVFC teams are better at running the ball than Socon teams, on average and 2) MVFC teams are better at stopping it. Looking at the data, that's a valid assumption, but if you actually know how these teams work, that's another issue all together.

So, I won't say that the stats are useless, but the algorithms don't translate between conferences, especially with the Socon, because the Socon is probably the one conference that both 1) has good teams and 2) manages to have a diversity of offensive styles. If you look at the MVFC, Big Sky and CAA, they are pretty monolithic (with some exceptions), but in the Socon you have 3 option teams (each with different and statistically verifiable strengths and weaknesses), a fast pace team (Western), an air raid team (Samford), a pro set team (Mercer), a bad team (VMI), a start up (ETSU), and a team that never found its ground and was wholly inconsistent this year (Chatt). The computers can't compensate for it in the same way.

Look at our numbers for run defense, for instance. We haven't allowed an FCS team to break 100 yards on us since the Citadel did it. We haven't allowed a player to rush for 100 yards on us since Youngstown. We've played 5 good rush teams in the top 25 run offense--Furman 2x, Western, Citadel, Gardner Webb and South Carolina and held all but South Carolina below their average running the ball (in some cases well below). But looking at our overall run defensive stats, you'd think we were only slightly above average. But the reality is, when it comes to run defense strength of schedule, we had one of the hardest in the country. Computers don't care about that.

That doesn't necessarily translate to us playing well or winning, but you get the point. Don't trust computers. Anyone who says that they know with certainty that one team is going to piledrive the other is sipping the kool-aid. The safest bet is that this is going to be close unless one team loses the turnover battle by 2+
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby boulder3m on Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:07 pm

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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby boulder3m on Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:12 pm

Good analysis YT. It would be hard to see either of these teams winning by more than 14 unless the sky falls. Defenses are just too stout, and neither team scores in buckets. For anyone with creditable skills in analysis, this should show as a close game.
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby youngterrier on Wed Dec 06, 2017 9:34 pm

One thing worth mentioning. Pending on who starts between Horton/Priester starts our starting DL will be, on average 20 or 30 lbs heavier than last time.
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby lawdog on Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:36 pm

Coach Ayers was interviewed at halftime tonight during our basketball win over GT. He was pumped. I think this basketball win will have a beneficial effect on our team in Fargo.
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby Lakesbison on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:36 pm

5dimes.eu live lines has it NDSU-20

sdsu beat NDSU because of inept O.C. play calling and QB Easton Stick worst game ever.

I think NDSU players are so zoned in on revenge with JMU, that's all they want this year and only way to do that is get to Frisco . So the intensity will be there, crowd might not be as loud as normal since its a 11am game.

ps your coach on bison 1660am radio called us north dakota... like twice.. them there's fighting words
. haha.

ps. only 5 degrees, snowing and -25 wind chill tonight. ho hum the boys practiced outside in this. creates toughness!!
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Re: NDSU vs WOFFORD Lets get it on!!!

Postby Ruckus on Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:56 pm

Let ‘em come South and try 2 a days in 100 degree heat and humidity.
We know a little about toughness too.
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