by youngterrier on Sun Oct 22, 2017 5:53 pm
If we play an "average" game in terms of how we normally perform on the scoreboard, on scoring averages on both side of the ball, we can expect a 28-21 win in my opinion.
If we lose, it's because we let them hang around until late and they do what they did to Mercer.
If we win, it's because we get up big and put them in less opportune situations and they play catch up.
The reason why ETSU has a relatively good pass offense can be explained by 4 things:
1) they actually do have a good QB and some good receivers. That's obvious.
2) They've played from way behind in a lot of games, which has forced them to go to the air more than they'd like (Western, Furman, JMU)
3) They don't have a formidable run game
4) Having the second best pass offense in the socon is kind of like being the second thinnest kid at fat camp. They're only about 10 yards on average better than Mercer or Western throwing the ball.
At the end of the day, they aren't Samford; they are about 8% less efficient passing the ball and throw it 12 times less per game than Samford does. They also allow 2x the sacks a game that Samford does and rush for 5 yards less a game than Samford does.
No game should be taken for granted; we can't afford to do that. But as a fan and not a participant in Saturday's game, I must point out that ETSU is a third year program, with clear indicators that they aren't where they need to be in the trenches to beat us. So, they definitely can beat us, and have beaten quite a few Socon teams in their brief stint in the conference. The only way we lose this game is if we beat ourselves, turn the ball over, penalties and leave points on the field.
Study hard, Work Hard, Party Hard, Go Terriers!