by youngterrier on Sat Oct 15, 2016 10:02 pm
To say that these two teams are mirror images of each other is an understatement.
Looking at the stats for the Chatty game, the difference in the points pretty much matches the difference in the game, scoring-wise.
Citadel only won by 8 (which is obviously not a small feat). They converted 13 of 20 on third downs, including 10 of 11 in the first half. They didn't turn the ball over. Right now us and the Citadel are sitting at the top two in rushing yards, third down conversions, and a couple other stats.
It looks like Chattanooga just got dominated at the line of scrimmage. Less than 100 yards rushing, Citadel was able to convert on third long by running the ball. In some ways that's "luck" (in the sense that that rate probability wise, is slim) but the fact that it kept happening implies good coaching. Again, I'm not trying to take away from Citadel, just trying to dissect what went down. At the end of the day, they're better than Chattanooga because of their strength in the trenches their ability to convert on third down, and their good ball control.
What does that translate for us? Well to start off, I would give Citadel a 60% chance of beating us. That's my Bayesian forecast(of course I believe we'll win it, but from a numbers and eye test standpoint you have to give Citadel the edge).
Having said that, it's going to come down to how each team executes (as usual). Turnovers are going to be key as are third down conversions. The fact that Chatt was able to force 20 third downs in itself implies that they just couldn't get off the field, whether that be because they couldn't figure out the option or if they just were physically inferior it's hard to tell, but we'll know the answer to that with this game (because we'll have the option "figured out" but if Citadel gets it done it offensively it implies their physical strength in the trenches). Still, the dynamics of our offense are going to be different from Chattanooga's. We pass the ball slightly better than the Citadel, but we're still an option, run first team. Both teams are going to have their stops, but the team that can force punts, and get off the field defensively will probably win it.
It's also worth noting that, for the most part, this year we've scored most of our points in the second half, and they in the first half. I wouldn't be surprised if they opened a lead in the first half and we close in the second, with the outcome TBD.
For an overall strategy, I'd say we need to have a lead at the half, win the turnover battle, and not hurt ourselves, to have a chance to win this game.
Study hard, Work Hard, Party Hard, Go Terriers!