Samford: Socon championship game part 1

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Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby youngterrier on Sat Oct 27, 2018 8:49 pm

This is the biggest game of the year.

Samford has beaten us something like 3 times straight. They're trying to make a run at the Socon autobid and could very well do that if they win out. We need this game to win a socon title and autobid. It's true that we need to win both of our next two to do so, but we can't do it without winning the first one first. If we lose this one, I don't like the chances of us getting an autobid or a seed.

I hope our banged up guys are at 100% for this one. This will be the biggest test Siefkis and Conklin have as a new coordinator/head coach, because our defense has been torched by Duck Hodges for the last 3 years.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby lawdog on Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:30 pm

For starters, we need to bring some real pressure on the QB.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby boulder3m on Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:42 pm

I just went back and watch IWF on the game with Samford last year. There are a couple of moments in that game that make us cringe; such as the fact that we were inside the 20 with 12 seconds left and Joe threw an interception that ended our chance. One other was the hit that caused the fumble by Samford that was disallowed because the Wofford defensive lineman's helmet was torn off by a Sammy player. Whether you like it or not, that is another replay that would likely have changed the outcome. Of course we don't see many of the plays that Samford made to beat us, but what we do see is that our running game shredded them. We all know that our offense has more potential than last year's team, but we have to use it to play Wofford game control football to give our D the chance to beat them. I hope Miller is OK and that he and Joe are in perfect form Saturday. It could be a fun game.
Just checked- We ran for 383 and passed for 82, but lost 2 fumbles. They threw for 423 and ran for 10. One of our fumbles was an ugly one by McAfee when he was holding the ball out in his left hand. What will be answered Saturday is whether we have gotten any better in our secondary.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby Retiredterrier on Sun Oct 28, 2018 9:53 pm

Boulder you hit the nail on the head. I could not say it any better. I hope MM is ok too mostly because I do not like seeing anybody get hurt. But he is one of my favorite players so I am especially interested in MM coming back asap for several reasons. And ld you are correct. Pressure on Hodges IMHO is the key to the game. If we can do it enough to rattle him and/or mess up their O then we have a good chance of stopping or slowing down their O so that our O can punch it in enough for a W. And what would help a lot too is if our D can come up with a turnover. Go Terriers !!!!!


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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby youngterrier on Mon Oct 29, 2018 3:45 pm

Blake Morgan is out for the year, unfortunately. Michael Ralph is probably out for this one. Miller Mosely still in concussion protocol
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby WocoSix on Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:04 pm

I am not even going to waste energy on the Mercer Analysis. Everything this week is focused on Samford. I am up to watching my 2nd game of Samford this season and its evident that they win or lose with Hodges. Kennesaw has pretty much written the book to limit the Samford offense. Their offensive success comes in mid (10-5 yds) and short (0-5) tier routes. Most SoCon teams try and play zone all game and hope to minimize the impact and potency of Samford. But the teams with the most success go Athlete on Athlete with their WR's and get pressure with the front 5. I am NOT saying we have to man up all game, but the teams with most success do a good job of confusing Hodges on pre-snap reads. The more indecisive he is in reading defenses the more jittery he is and prone to make what I call (Brett Farve) plays. Our Defensive staff has done a great job implementing a Nickle package. I account our success in limiting teams on 3rd down conversions to the addition of Watson at nickle corner and putting Redwood a converted CB in the extra safety position. In 8 games our defense is #1 or at the top in the SoCon in a majority of the defensive categories.

PASS DEFENSE G Comp Att Int Pct. Yards Avg. TD Avg/G
1. Wofford 8 146 250 8 58.4 1516 6.1 12 189.5

SCORING DEFENSE G TD FG XPT 2XP DXP Saf Points
1. Wofford 8 20 3 19 0 0 0 148 18.5

TOTAL DEFENSE G Rush Pass Plays Yards Avg/P TD Avg/G
1. Wofford 8 725 1516 487 2241 4.6 18 280.1

RUSHING DEFENSE G Att Yards Avg. TD Yards/G
1. Wofford 8 237 725 3.1 6 90.6

OPP 3RD-DN CONVERT G Conv. Att. Pct.
1. Wofford 8 32 105 30.5

As for Hodges his success looks to rely mainly on 3 WR's. The run game is pretty much non existent. If we can limit their possessions and get them off the field on 3rd downs our offense will have a chance to do their thing.

Devlin Hodges
C/ATT YDS AVG TD INT
40/52 402 7.7 2 2 vs FU Creamer 8 McKnight 7 Shelling 6
32/41 473 11.5 6 1 vs VMI Shelling 10 McKnight 9
44/60 562 9.4 6 3 vs WCU Creamer 9 McKnight 8 Shelling 4
21/34 150 4.4 1 0 vs Kennesaw Shelling 5 McKnight 4
44/62 366 5.9 1 3 vs UTC McKnight 12 Harris 6 Shelling 3
30/41 291 7.1 3 1 vs Mercer McKnight 10 Shelling 5
39/60 475 7.9 2 4 vs FSU McKnight 14 Shelling 5
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby youngterrier on Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:15 pm

I'll be honest. The Samford run game doesn't scare me at all. It's very likely they fail to rush for 50. It's all about third down and pass defense
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby lawdog on Mon Oct 29, 2018 4:29 pm

Good analysis Woco ... makes a lot of sense. We have been subbing often on D, which should help.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby WocoSix on Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:34 pm

Thanks Law I am hoping that we don't see the 60+ attempts from Hodges ..Paschal would have to play a bigger role if we do. If Samford is getting that many passing attempts then we are in for a 35+ point outing. And I don't think we can match them in a shoot out. Its the red zone that concerns me. Samford is 3rd in the league in red zone offense scoring 90% of the time. We have done a good job of keeping teams out of our red zone, but when they do reach it 83% of the time we are giving up touchdowns and not field goals. No doubt in my mind Samford will get yards in the air and frequent our red zone, but when they do we have to limit them to FG attempts.

RED ZONE OFFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass FGMade-FGAtt Fumb Int. Downs Other
3. Samford 8 38-42 90.5 31 13-18 7-8 2 0 0 1

RED ZONE DEFENSE G Scores-Chances Pct. TDs Rush-Pass FGMade-FGAtt Fumb Int. Downs Other
3. Wofford 8 15-18 83.3 14 5-9 1-1 0 2 1 0


Oh yea this is my YT impression. I'm sure he will have some real stats on tendencies! :lol:
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby youngterrier on Mon Oct 29, 2018 5:38 pm

Nah, you pretty much have it. Our challenge is to limit his completions. 2 years ago he only missed 2 receivers. Last year he tossed for 400 yards. They've made adjustments after the first couple losses. They're pretty good at protecting Hodges considering how much they throw it. They're gonna try to get it out QUICK so zone isn't going to be our friend or else they will dink and dunk all day.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby WocoSix on Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:35 pm

I concur that Samford will try the quick game. Only difference is unlike last years defensive staff we have found ways to create pressure with our front 3. We are actually using the LB position to confuse pass protections and confuse the QB's 1st and 2nd reads. I'll take my chances if we can get Hodges to go to his 3rd read. He will give up on the play and get quick feet and run. Unlike Mercer, Samford does not have a 50/50 WR like Irvin. If we can get Samford going to fade routes and downfield throws I like our chances with our safeties. Also our linebackers must make the WR's FEARFUL of running drags, slants, and crossing routes over the middle.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby youngterrier on Mon Oct 29, 2018 7:58 pm

One wrinkle we see this year that wasn't there in years past is the delay blitz by the linebacker. I imagine we will see that Saturday.

Has our coverage scheme changed since the Wyoming game? I remember reading comments about how it was the same as last year and we didn't adjust. Last year Hodges beat us because we didn't really bring the blitz and we didn't do much to change up coverage either.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby WocoSix on Mon Oct 29, 2018 9:29 pm

Since Wyoming I think we have tweaked every week. A few nuances here and there. For instance, last year our Safeties would play the slot 10-12 yards from line of scrimmage. This year and the last few games you will notice our LB's playing more of the flats and underneath. If you noticed the RB out of the back field has been remedied since ETSU. You will see our LB's actually pointing at the running back in the backfield. Another tweak is the LB's in gaps on line of scrimmage pre-snap and then backing up into zone coverage (zone blitz) trying to get a cheap pick on a hot read from the QB.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby boulder3m on Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:38 pm

Six-great analysis. Everything changed after Furman. We have been putting in lots of variations in our defense and it shows. We also have made a lot of offensive changes and added some twists that should give trouble to Samford. Glad to see it on both sides of the ball.
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Re: Samford: Socon championship game part 1

Postby youngterrier on Mon Oct 29, 2018 10:58 pm

One thing you notice this year is a lot more communication on defense in the pre-snap. My dad was saying on one play that it looked like we were confused because of all the movement and hand gestures, but that's by design. It's a game of chicken/game theory. There's always a weak spot in the defense, no matter if it's Bama, Western Carolina, or the New England Patriots. The reason why today's game has a lot of motion, pre-snap looks, etc is because the offense is trying to maximize the information they get from a look.

So, from a defensive perspective, you can do some deception yourself. That's what the third down--aka "diarrhea" package for SHD listeners--is for. You don't know who's blitzing or if someone is going to play man or what.

What I like about what Conklin and Siefkis have done is that they've implemented this seemingly basic scheme into our defense (not just with third down packages). Maybe, I'm just not attentive or knowledgeable about defenses, but I really don't think we've been doing anything within an order of magnitude as complicated.

They're basically confirming what I already thought to be true: we have smart athletic players who can do so much more than what our traditional multiple 50 defense (let's be real...it's a 3-4 now, the multiple 50 is pretty much gone) has afforded us.

I would have to go back, but from a scoring defense perspective this is probably our best year since 2003.

None of this means we will win on Saturday, but I'm more confident in our coaches' ability to adjust on defense than I have been in a while, maybe ever. Maybe a Furman-sized gaffe is still possible again this season, but I would like to be optimistic and think the staff has patched that hole up. Only time will tell. Is it Saturday yet????
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