by youngterrier on Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:49 pm
I got to thinking about this game, and you know what? I'm still feeling good about our chances of making the playoffs. The next 2 games are going to be pivotal at determining how our season goes.
Samford is a team that has beaten us now 4 of the last 5 (and 5 of the last 9), a record better than any team (sans Chatt) in the Socon against us in the last 4. They beat us at their place in 2012 too when we won the Socon. All of the games we've played against them have been TOUGH or, worst case scenario they beat us handily. Let's review.
2012 we lost a game we probably should have won in OT (24-17).
2013: We lost to a good Samford team, but our offense still wasn't there. The scoreboard looked better than the actual results on the field as we had a pick 6 to keep us on pace and they led by 2 TDs late (34-27)
2014: We beat them at their place in probably the best win we've had in the last few years (no offense to Samford, but they haven't been a juggernaut in the last few years as they've only made the playoffs once and that doesn't make us look too good). The Score was 24-20
2015: We lost by 10, but the game wasn't that close. Much like 2013, they controlled the game and we scored late to keep it looking competitive (37-27).
Now, contrast these performances with ours last week, and I don't think there's any doubt that we did better. As I've said to gofurman, it doesn't really matter how well we do if we don't win, but I think for the sake of understanding our relative performance there's reason to be optimistic. The average margin of victory for the winner of the last 5 games has been 6 points, with this one being the closest, other than the OT game. Even if we do make the plays and win the game, we're still winning by about the same margin. Regardless we were in a position to win/tie the game in the fourth quarter, and we moved the ball without turnovers the whole game.
Like it or not, Samford is our equal in this conference and we are the inversion of each other. Looking at how they play offense and just how we've historically played them, we would have needed to score 30 points or held them under 20 to have a chance. Defense needed to force turnovers and get pressure, which they weren't as able to do for reasons I've already talked about.
So on one hand, I'm frustrated that we didn't win, but on another, I think you can make the quantitative case that we are playing better than we did last year.
Last year, our offense made way too many mistakes, which usually led to a gassed defense. This year we don't seem to make as many mistakes and our defense I still think is better. I expect an "outlier game" at some point this season, but through 5 games we've only turned the ball over twice (!), and we've fumbled the ball at half the rate as we did last year. Penalties are obviously a problem, accounting for about 20 yards a game more than last year. We're still punting the ball on average 10 yards farther, and converting third downs close to 50% (!) which is 10% higher than last year, as well as about 70% (!) on fourth down.
Goodson played a great game saturday. Some people in the spur of the moment were saying that he didn't, but I don't know what game you were watching.
Overall, offensively, if we nip our penalty woes in the butt and continue to play solid offense without turnovers we are going to see that transition to more points and more wins.
Back to my original point, that's why the next 2 weeks are really important. We lose one more and we're in semi-panic mode. We lose two, and we're pretty much out of the playoffs and the team will play like it (see 2013). Western Carolina does not appear to be the defensive team they were in the last couple years, but we can't bank on it. I think we should be favored going in but I don't think the team needs to approach it that way as they've beaten us the last 2 times. Then there is the Citadel, who admittedly is the current "Georgia Southern" of the conference in that they are the perceived option powerhouse. Again, if we don't turn over the ball, I think we'll play well and have a chance to win it. Unlike Samford, their offense like ours is designed to grind clock and they aren't going to score 30 on us unless we have a terrible offensive day, give them turnovers, etc.
If we win our next 2, I think we'll make the playoffs. If we split the next 2, who knows. I like our chances against VMI, Mercer, and Furman, but each can take us out if we sleep on them. If we beat and put together a solid offensive performance against Citadel and Western, I think one can say "we're back" but nothing is a given.
Study hard, Work Hard, Party Hard, Go Terriers!